Economic research papers aim to analyze and interpret shifts in an economy, whether on a national, product, or industry level. For early-career researchers or students, a foundational understanding of research methodology and an engaging topic is key to producing publishable work.
Defining Economic Research
Economic research involves analyzing the state or changes in an economy and comparing these shifts to influential events or market dynamics. Researchers may focus on entire economies, specific sectors, or even single markets for goods or services. A well-executed research paper offers actionable insights, supporting policymakers, businesses, and other economists in making informed decisions.
Identifying a Research Topic
A strong economic research topic not only meets academic standards but also addresses current issues or debates. Here’s how to frame a topic and build out the research:
Example Topic:
In March 2018, former U.S. President Donald Trump imposed tariffs of 25% on steel and 10% on aluminum imports from most countries, including China. Such tariffs could theoretically reduce imports of these metals by raising costs, thus impacting U.S. industries reliant on steel and aluminum.
Developing the Hypothesis
The hypothesis for a paper could focus on measuring the effects of these tariffs on import volumes:
• Hypothesis: The 2018 tariffs reduced the quantity of imported steel and aluminum in the United States.
• If imports decreased post-tariff, the research might indicate a direct tariff impact.
• If imports stayed the same or increased, this could suggest other factors at play (e.g., demand resilience or domestic production constraints).
Choosing the Right Data Source
For this study, comprehensive import records are essential. Kirchner’s U.S. Ocean Import Records provide monthly data on import quantities, product descriptions, and sources, allowing researchers to compare import volumes before and after March 2018. These records can reveal how the tariffs impacted specific importers, exporters, and products, leading to evidence-based conclusions.
Conducting the Analysis
Using time-series analysis, researchers can examine import patterns by month, comparing pre- and post-tariff periods. This process might involve:
1. Data Selection: Extract import records for steel and aluminum from Kirchner’s data, isolating time frames (e.g., January 2017 – December 2019).
2. Quantitative Analysis: Compare monthly averages of import volumes before and after March 2018.
3. Event Analysis: Apply statistical techniques, like difference-in-differences (DiD), to assess whether the observed changes in import volumes are statistically significant.
Interpreting the Results
Whether or not the import volumes change provides valuable insights:
• Decrease in Imports: Indicates tariffs may have reduced demand for foreign steel and aluminum, prompting reliance on domestic sources.
• No Change: Suggests high demand for steel and aluminum regardless of price increases, or that domestic supply could not fulfill the demand, necessitating continued imports.
• Increase in Imports: Could signal that tariffs were insufficient in deterring imports or that U.S. producers could not meet industrial demands.
Each outcome offers a distinct perspective on economic resilience, policy effectiveness, and industrial capacity. Furthermore, understanding the broader impact of tariffs contributes to ongoing debates about trade policy, making this type of analysis valuable for publications and policymakers.
Writing the Research Paper
Structure your paper as follows:
1. Introduction: Introduce the research question, its relevance, and the economic significance of the tariffs.
2. Literature Review: Summarize relevant studies on trade tariffs, import behaviors, and economic impacts of policy changes.
3. Methodology: Detail the data source (Kirchner’s import records), analysis methods, and hypothesis.
4. Analysis and Results: Present findings with supporting tables and graphs, highlighting trends before and after tariff imposition.
5. Discussion: Interpret results, discussing implications for trade policy, industry, and economic theory.
6. Conclusion: Summarize findings and suggest areas for further research, including the potential long-term effects of tariffs on other imported goods.
Conclusion
This research provides actionable insights into U.S. economic policy’s effects, positioning it for publication in journals and economic research conferences. For students and early-career economists, such an analysis not only builds analytical skills but also contributes valuable evidence to policy debates.
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